Fospha

The Science of Measurement Most measurement tools look backwards, not forwards. They tell you what worked last quarter, not where to invest next. With CFOs demanding proof of ROI and growth teams needing daily clarity, backward-looking tools can’t keep up.

🦃 This Thanksgiving, we’re grateful for the things making brands’ lives a little easier: 1. Daily clarity across the full funnel. Because the world doesn’t wait for QBRs and neither should the insights that guide spend. 2. Knowing where the next smart dollar actually goes. Headroom, diminishing returns, real incremental impact… it’s nice when the numbers point to an answer instead of a debate. 3. Seeing how DTC and marketplace lift each other. Modern commerce is messy. But when you can finally see the spillover, the whole story gets a lot more interesting. 4. Models that show their work. Validation, error checks, back-tests - the unglamorous bits that build trust and make finance breathe a little easier. A few things we’ll gladly go back for seconds on every year. Happy Thanksgiving from the Fospha team. 💙

We’re bringing together Hugo Hiley (Fospha) and Ankit Patel (U BEAUTY) for a fireside-style conversation powered by Fospha’s Beauty Playbook data. Beauty is moving faster than most brand operating models can keep up with. Discovery is happening everywhere, from social to marketplaces. Creative is becoming the new targeting. And the brands growing in 2026 are the ones rethinking how they operate across the full funnel. 📅 Tuesday, December 9th 📍 Webinar This session will explore: - The shifts reshaping how beauty brands reach, engage and convert customers - How leading teams think about channels, creative and measurement today - Where the next wave of opportunities will come from and what capabilities matter most If you work in beauty, eCommerce, marketing or growth, this will be a practical conversation worth joining on what it takes to scale in a more fragmented, multi-surface world. Link to register in the comments.

The Science of Measurement | Episode 3 How do you know whether your model is performing as it should and what does “good performance” even mean? Most providers treat model performance as a single score. At Fospha, it’s a discipline - a continuous practice of fit, prediction, and validation. In this episode, we break down the three components we use to evaluate and explain model performance inside our Glassbox framework: - nRMSE: quantifies predictive error and how closely predictions match reality - R²: shows how much variance the model explains, interpreted in context - Back-testing: a time-aware validation method that checks how well the model generalises to future, unseen periods Together, these provide a clear, evidence-based view of how the model learns, how it predicts, and how it behaves over time. Glassbox makes this transparent: models retrain daily, performance is monitored continuously, and accuracy metrics are available to customers whenever they want to validate the science behind their forecasts. Read the full blog: How do you measure the performance of your model? The role of nRMSE, R², and back-testing explained. Link in comments.

Are you spending enough in YouTube and Demand Gen? The data suggests - probably not. The customer journey has never been more complex, and Google now spans everything from discovery to purchase. Yet too many brands still treat it as a capture channel only, ignoring the full-funnel potential of strategies like YouTube and Demand Gen. • YouTube (VRC/VVC) creates attention and interest • Demand Gen turns that attention into action across YouTube, Discover, Gmail and GVP Fospha data suggests they are under-invested, with 60–70% profitable headroom still left untouched. But legacy measurement hides their value - Last-Click undervalues YouTube + Demand Gen by 14×. That’s how brands get stuck in the bottom-funnel trap, retargeting the same finite audience and watching CAC rise. The brands that win peak season look different. They invest in the channels that build demand and drive action, to unlock new customers and boost efficiency further down the Google arsenal (like PMAX and Search). Read our latest blog showing how Google’s YouTube and Demand Gen drive demand and outcomes. Link in comments.

Beauty marketers are navigating one of the most fragmented, fast-moving categories out there and it shows in how tough measurement has become. As part of our Beauty of Better Measurement campaign, here are 3 realities we found shaping the category today: - Omnichannel by default: One ad can influence DTC, Amazon, TikTok Shop, Sephora and in-store retail. - Paid + organic blur: Creators and user-generated content spark demand long before the click. - Beauty is personal: Emotional connection fuels long-term growth and needs its own layer of measurement. These forces make beauty one of the most exciting and complex categories to build and scale in today. Explore more in our State of Beauty blog on our dedicated Beauty site in the comments! #Measurement #Fullfunnell #TheBeautyofBetterMeasurement #BeautyMarketing

We sat down with New Engen's SVP of Strategy and Growth, Kevin Goodwin, to break down the three most common pitfalls brands face when scaling TikTok creative. Swipe the carousel to see what to avoid and what top performers do differently.

As part of our Beauty of Better Measurement campaign, we’re releasing a new series of blogs capturing what we’ve learned from partnering with beauty brands over the past few years. Kicking things off is The State of Beauty 2025 - a quick snapshot of the trends and shifts we’re seeing as beauty marketers navigate one of the most complex, fast-moving landscapes yet. With budgets under pressure and new channels like TikTok Shop reshaping how shoppers discover and buy, the smartest teams are rethinking what “performance” really means. Three shifts are defining this next era of measurement: 1. From Attribution to Causality - moving beyond clicks to measure what truly creates demand. 2. From Campaigns to Continuous Learning - always-on measurement that adapts performance in days, not weeks. 3. From Clicks to Influence - capturing impression-led impact and the halo effect that drives cross-channel sales. These changes are transforming how beauty marketers see performance and how they grow with confidence. Access the full blog in the comments! #Measurement #TheBeautyofBetterMeasurement #Fullfunnell #BeautyMarketing

Black Friday is a week away and the room for reactive decision-making is tiny. WARC has just published a new article by our Marketing Lead, Snezhina Kashukeeva: Mistakes brands typically make during Black Friday and Cyber Monday – and how to avoid them One key takeaway Snezhina highlights for this late stage: When you see sudden spikes or drops in your ad platform dashboards, avoid reacting in the moment. Instead, focus on daily blended metrics – things like: - % of daily new customers - Customer acquisition costs - Cost per purchase - Marketing efficiency ratio Taken together, these show the real relationship between ad spend and total revenue. For the rest of the guidance as we head into peak, read the full article on WARC: https://hubs.ly/Q03VfQ2C0 (Requires WARC subscription.) If you missed our Peak 2025 Playbook, you can download it from the link in comments below. Good luck for peak from all of us at Fospha. 🖤