Capacity Planning Evaluation

What-If Scenario Planning: Strengthening Your Capacity Plan for the Unexpected In my recent post, I shared a full capacity planning outline. One of the most impactful ways to strengthen that plan is through scenario planning. Even the best capacity plan can collapse if you are not prepared for surprises. In workforce management (WFM), scenario planning helps your team stay resilient when the unexpected happens. Here is a practical outline for structuring what-if scenario planning in Excel: 1. Inputs sheet (core assumptions) Include forecasted volumes (baseline, optimistic, pessimistic), AHT assumptions (accounting for changes over time), concurrency assumptions if needed, shrinkage assumptions, handling or processing approaches that may affect staffing, hiring and attrition plans, productivity rates, and overtime or buffer assumptions. 2. Workload calculation sheet (per scenario) Calculate workload (volume × AHT ÷ 3600). Adjust for concurrency if needed. Determine required FTE using your preferred method, such as Erlang C for queue-based work, or simpler conversions for non-real-time tasks. Roll up interval requirements into daily or weekly needs. 3. Shrinkage adjustment sheet Apply shrinkage to determine net FTE need. List each shrinkage component such as PTO, sick leave, training, meetings, absenteeism, and downtime. Coaching, meetings, and training can also be levers to reclaim time for customer interactions. Show impact per scenario. 4. Capacity supply sheet Include starting headcount, planned hiring, and attrition. Build headcount over time. Show available FTE after shrinkage for each scenario. 5. Scenario comparison sheet Compare each scenario side by side. Show net FTE, available capacity, staffing gaps, and service level risk. Use color coding to highlight gaps. 6. Actions and mitigation sheet List potential actions like accelerated hiring, overtime, cross-training, or flexible staffing. Include adjustments to planned shrinkage activities that free up capacity. Show estimated staffing impact and costs. 7. Visual dashboards sheet Add summary charts like headcount vs. requirement, FTE surplus or deficit, and shrinkage breakdowns. Include simple heatmaps for interval or weekly risks. 8. Reconciliation and tracking sheet (optional) Compare actuals to modeled scenarios, track accuracy, and document notes for leadership. Additional tips Use drop-downs or scenario selectors to adjust assumptions. Apply conditional formatting to flag gaps. Add an executive summary section to each sheet. Scenario planning strengthens your capacity plan and builds stakeholder trust. It shows you are not just planning for what is likely, but prepared for what might happen. What unexpected scenarios have tested your plans, and how did your team respond? I would love to hear your stories and insights. #WorkforceManagement #CapacityPlanning #ScenarioPlanning #ContactCenter #OperationalExcellence

The Fab Whisperer: Capacity Planning - From Spreadsheets to Self-Learning Models. Last week we looked at the widening gap between silicon demand and fab capacity — the classic setup for another boom-and-bust cycle. Imbalance is inherent in the market. We try to balance it in the way we plan capacity. For an industry that spends hundreds of billions on CAPEX, capacity planning should be science. Yet it often I see frozen spreadsheets, heroic assumptions, and “best-guess” throughput models that quietly drift from reality. Are we building fabs based on models that no longer represent how fabs actually run? Using the wrong model for the wrong purpose? CAPEX Planning ≠ Fab Daily Operations Planning Capacity — deciding what, when, and where to build. Running Capacity — managing flow, bottlenecks, and daily WIP. CAPEX models are strategic: they test economics, demand scenarios, and sensitivity to capacity detractors. Operational models are tactical: they simulate variability, queueing, and dispatch logic. When fabs try to use the same model for both, they end up with bad investments and bad daily decisions. It’s like using a telescope to check your pulse. Most Common Methods of How We Plan Capacity 1. Static Models (Spreadsheet Economics) Quick and transparent — perfect for early CAPEX justifications. But fixed throughput and yield assumptions age fast. Once products, recipes, or WPH shift, the model collapses. 2. Dynamic Simulations (Discrete-Event or Digital Twins based) Capture queues, PM downtime, and rework loops — essential for operational decision-making. Great for optimizing how to run a fab, not what to build next. Powerful but maintenance-heavy; too often abandoned after the big study. The Next Frontier Not mainstream yet but they point to the future: AI-Driven and Hybrid Models. These models will learn from real time fab data, adapt to product mix, and continuously recalibrate effective capacity. They will bridge the gap between planning and operations — a single living model that never goes stale. The barrier isn’t technology — it’s data discipline and trust. The Real Challenge The biggest risk isn’t model complexity — it’s model decay. Assumptions age. Routings evolve. PM cycles shift. By the time the next CAPEX round starts, you’re planning the future based on a fab that no longer exists. What can we do meanwhile Match the model type to the decision horizon. CAPEX → financial sensitivity and long-term. Operations → flow dynamics, variability control, short term. Treat models as living systems, not one-off projects. Assign ownership for keeping assumptions, routings, and rates current. Benchmark quarterly — compare modeled vs. actual effective capacity. Start building the bridge: integrate AI and fab data into planning cycles today. Are your capacity models describing reality — or nostalgia? #TheFabWhisperer #Semiconductor #FabOperations #CapacityPlanning #DigitalTwin #AI #ManufacturingExcellence #FabModeling

Overview of Capacity Planning SAP Capacity Planning ensures that production resources, such as machines and labor, are effectively utilized to meet production demands. It involves calculating the available capacity, analyzing the required capacity, and aligning them to optimize production efficiency. Key Components of Capacity Planning 1. Work Centers: • Work centers are organizational units where production operations occur. They have defined capacities based on factors like machine availability, operating hours, and workforce. • Each work center can handle specific tasks or operations, defined by the routing of the products. 2. Routings: • Routings describe the sequence of operations needed to manufacture a product. They include details such as operation times, work centers involved, and setup times. • Accurate routings are crucial for precise capacity planning. 3. Capacity Requirements Planning (CRP): • CRP calculates the load on each work center by assessing the planned and production orders against available capacity. • It helps identify whether the current resources can meet the production schedule or if adjustments are needed. 4. Capacity Evaluation: • Capacity evaluation provides tools to compare the load with available capacity. • It highlights potential bottlenecks or periods of underutilization, allowing planners to take corrective actions. 5. Capacity Leveling: • Capacity leveling involves adjusting production schedules to balance the load across work centers. • This process can include shifting production orders, extending work hours, or reallocating resources to ensure smooth operations. Methods of Capacity Planning 1. Finite Capacity Planning: • Takes actual capacity constraints into account, ensuring that work centers are not overloaded beyond their capacity. • Useful for detailed scheduling and ensuring realistic production plans. 2. Infinite Capacity Planning: • Assumes unlimited capacity, providing a rough-cut plan to highlight potential capacity issues. • Useful for initial planning stages and strategic decision-making. Metrics and Analysis 1. Capacity Utilization: • Measures the efficiency of resource usage. High utilization indicates optimal use, while low utilization may suggest inefficiencies or potential improvements. 2. Bottleneck Analysis: • Identifies work centers that are likely to be overloaded, helping prioritize resource adjustments or schedule changes. 3. What-If Scenarios: • Allows planners to simulate different scenarios, such as changes in demand or resource availability, to understand their impact on capacity.

Because capacity is a silent killer of growth and profits... This infographic shows 10 capacity calculations that every supply planner should master... ✅ 1️⃣ Gross Capacity Requirement 👉 Concept: calculates the total capacity required to meet production goals without considering any constraints or limitations 🧮 Calculation: Planned Production Quantity X Standard Hours per Unit ✅ 2️⃣ Net Capacity Requirement 👉 Concept: takes the gross capacity requirement and adjusts it for factors including scrap, rework, and inefficiencies 🧮 Calculation: Gross Capacity Requirement – Expected Losses ✅ 3️⃣ Resource Load 👉 Concept: estimates the workload on a specific resource to see if it’s doable with the current capacity 🧮 Calculation: Load = Required Hours / Available Hours ✅ 4️⃣ Load Capacity Ratio 👉 Concept: compares total demand to available capacity, useful for identifying potential bottlenecks 🧮 Calculation: (Total Load / Available Capacity) X 100 ✅ 5️⃣ Utilization Percentage 👉 Concept: indicates how much of the available capacity is planned to be used, helpful for balancing workloads 🧮 Calculation: (Capacity Used / Available Capacity) X 100 ✅ 6️⃣ Standard Time Variance 👉 Concept: measures how much actual production time differs from the expected (standard) production time. 🧮 Calculation: Standard Time Variance= Actual Time – Standard Time ✅ 7️⃣ Capacity Adjustment Factor 👉 Concept: adjusts for factors such as seasonal variations or planned downtime 🧮 Calculation: Available Capacity X Capacity Adjustment Factor ✅ 8️⃣ Capacity Gap 👉 Concept: shows the difference between required and available capacity, indicating if adjustments are needed 🧮 Calculation: Net Capacity Requirement – Available Capacity ✅ 9️⃣ Production Rate 👉 Concept: calculates units produced per hour to compare against standard rates to assess feasibility 🧮 Calculation: Planned Units / Planned Hours ✅ 1️⃣0️⃣ Capacity Cushion for Rough Cut Capacity 👉 Concept: provides a buffer, ensuring capacity can handle variability or unanticipated demand 🧮 Calculation: [(Available Capacity – Required Capacity) / Available Capacity] X 100 Any others to add?

📊 Have you checked in on your capacity model lately? "We can handle it" isn't a sustainable capacity planning strategy, yet many of us in RecOps have relied on gut feelings rather than data to forecast our recruiting bandwidth. Let's talk about why measuring your capacity model's accuracy is fundamental to recruiting's success: - Historical data drives precision. By systematically comparing your model's predictions against actual performance, you can refine those critical assumptions about recruiter capacity, req complexity, and time-to-fill metrics that form the backbone of your planning. - Stakeholder confidence elevates. There's a marked difference between saying "We think we can manage these reqs" versus "Our capacity model has demonstrated 90% accuracy over the last three quarters." This level of precision transforms conversations with hiring managers and leadership. - Resource optimization becomes data-driven. Accurate capacity modeling directly impacts budgeting and headcount decisions, helping prevent both the costly overhead of over-staffing and the hidden expenses of an overwhelmed recruiting team. Implementation doesn't require complex algorithms. Start by tracking basic metrics: forecasted vs. actual requisition load, time-to-fill variations, and recruiter bandwidth utilization. This can be as simple as a hires made vs. capacity plan line chart. Document your assumptions, measure outcomes, and iterate on your model. Remember: The goal isn't perfection, but continuous improvement in how we predict and manage recruiting capacity. #RecOps #TalentAcquisition #RecruitingOperations #PeopleAnalytics #CapacityPlanning What metrics have you found most valuable in validating your capacity models? Share your insights below. 👇