Loss Prevention Strategies

It’s easy as a PM to only focus on the upside. But you'll notice: more experienced PMs actually spend more time on the downside. The reason is simple: the more time you’ve spent in Product Management, the more times you’ve been burned. The team releases “the” feature that was supposed to change everything for the product - and everything remains the same. When you reach this stage, product management becomes less about figuring out what new feature could deliver great value, and more about de-risking the choices you have made to deliver the needed impact. -- To do this systematically, I recommend considering Marty Cagan's classical 4 Risks. 𝟭. 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 Remember Juicero? They built a $400 Wi-Fi-enabled juicer, only to discover that their value proposition wasn’t compelling. Customers could just as easily squeeze the juice packs with their hands. A hard lesson in value risk. Value Risk asks whether customers care enough to open their wallets or devote their time. It’s the soul of your product. If you can’t be match how much they value their money or time, you’re toast. 𝟮. 𝗨𝘀𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿’𝘀 𝗟𝗲𝗻𝘀 Usability Risk isn't about if customers find value; it's about whether they can even get to that value. Can they navigate your product without wanting to throw their device out the window? Google Glass failed not because of value but usability. People didn’t want to wear something perceived as geeky, or that invaded privacy. Google Glass was a usability nightmare that never got its day in the sun. 𝟯. 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 Feasibility Risk takes a different angle. It's not about the market or the user; it's about you. Can you and your team actually build what you’ve dreamed up? Theranos promised the moon but couldn't deliver. It claimed its technology could run extensive tests with a single drop of blood. The reality? It was scientifically impossible with their tech. They ignored feasibility risk and paid the price. 𝟰. 𝗩𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶-𝗗𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲 (Business) Viability Risk is the "grandmaster" of risks. It asks: Does this product make sense within the broader context of your business? Take Kodak for example. They actually invented the digital camera but failed to adapt their business model to this disruptive technology. They held back due to fear it would cannibalize their film business. -- This systematic approach is the best way I have found to help de-risk big launches. How do you like to de-risk?

How a pair of worn Sneakers taught us a hard lesson in E-commerce fraud. Years ago, I worked at a flash sales company. For those unfamiliar: flash sales offer deep discounts on premium products for a short time, usually to clear unsold inventory from big brands. Customers love it. Brands move stock. Everyone wins, until something breaks. During a routine support review, our fraud prevention team noticed a strange complaint: a member received what he claimed were used sneakers instead of the brand-new pair he ordered. Odd. But not isolated. A similar complaint, same brand, same product, had popped up a few months earlier. We explored all the usual suspects: - Brand error? Unlikely. The inventory had never left their warehouse. - Internal issue? No sign of tampering. Our warehouse was automated and secured. - Shipping problem? The customer remembered opening a fully sealed package. That left one path: the return flow. At the time, returns were still handled manually. When we looked closer, a pattern emerged. A small group of customers had figured it out. They bought iconic sneakers, wore them for a while, then ordered the same pair during the next flash sale. When the new box arrived, they simply swapped in the worn pair and returned it in the pristine packaging. Our team processed it without suspicion, and the used sneakers got sent to the next buyer. It was smart. Subtle. And it worked, until it didn’t. The point is this: fraud doesn’t always come through the front door. Sometimes it hides in operational blind spots. It targets the low-friction areas of your business, the ones built on trust and speed. We fixed the issue, trained the teams, added safeguards. But the story stuck with me. Because every generous policy, if unchecked, can be turned into a playbook. Let fraud prevention in e-commerce be more than just tech. Look at your processes. Your people. Your incentives. That’s where the real cracks begin.

A few years ago, I discovered a $250K promo abuse ring by accident. I noticed something odd: Perfectly normal-looking customers were hitting our 'limit 1 per household' promos exactly 14 days apart. Not 13. Not 15. Exactly 14 days. It was 3 AM, and I couldn't let it go. Something felt wrong. So I dug deeper. These "customers" had flawless order histories. Perfect progressive spending patterns. Everything looked legitimate on the surface. Too legitimate. That's when it hit me The fraudsters were carefully building account histories to fly under the radar. The pattern was beautiful in its simplicity: → Create accounts → Build perfect order history → Wait exactly 14 days → Hit the high-value promos → Scale to hundreds of accounts By the time we caught it, they had scaled to 500+ aged accounts. We rebuilt our entire detection around lifecycle patterns: → Account aging signals → Order progression metrics → Network connection mapping → Behavior pattern analysis The fraudsters are still out there, still trying. But now we know what to look for. And our promos actually drive real growth instead of funding abuse networks. Every time I see a "too perfect" order pattern now, I go back to that 3 AM discovery. ps... If you’ve been wondering how to protect your promos and keep things running smoothly, I'm sharing even more in tomorrow's Fraud Friday chat https://lnkd.in/eEHQ-BXG See you there

Most would agree that building a brand-new house is significantly easier than carrying out a major renovation on an old one. The same principle applies to control systems. Setting up a new system is often much simpler than upgrading an existing one. When it comes to major upgrades, especially for Distributed Control Systems (DCS), there are 8 elements that must be carefully considered to ensure a successful implementation: 1. System Compatibility & Integration • Legacy System Interface: Ensure new DCS can interface with older field instruments, I/O modules, and control logic (if retained). • Protocol Mismatch: Compatibility between old and new communication protocols (e.g., HART, Profibus, Foundation Fieldbus, Modbus). • Third-party System Integration: SCADA, PLCs, SIS (Safety Instrumented Systems), historians, and asset management tools must seamlessly integrate. 2. Downtime Minimization • Phased Migration Plan: Design must allow partial switchover to maintain plant operations. • Hot Cutover Capability: Ensure some systems can switch without shutting down the entire plant. • Backup Systems: Redundant systems and fallback strategies in case of failure during the upgrade. 3. Cybersecurity • Hardening the New System: New DCS introduces network exposure; firewalls, segmentation, and intrusion detection must be included. • Patch Management: Choose systems with secure patching and vendor support. • Compliance: Meet standards like ISA/IEC 62443. 4. Safety Systems Interface • SIS Independence: Ensure the DCS upgrade doesn’t compromise the independence and integrity of Safety Instrumented Systems. • Interlock Revalidation: All interlocks and safety logics must be retested and validated post-upgrade. 5. Data Migration & Configuration • Control Logic Transfer: Rewriting or translating existing logic into the new system format without losing functionality. • Historian & Alarm Data Migration: Maintain data integrity during transfer. • I/O Mapping Accuracy: Critical to ensure correct connections between field devices and control logic. 6. Hardware & Network Architecture • Redundancy Design: Controller, power, and network redundancy for high availability. • Scalability: Room for future expansion in the control system design. • Segmentation: Proper zoning of control and field networks for performance and security. 7. Operator Interface & HMI Design • Operator Familiarity: Reduce the learning curve with intuitive graphics and control layouts. • Alarm Rationalization: Avoid alarm flooding; ensure alarm priorities are re-evaluated. • Simulation & Training: Include an operator training simulator for commissioning and operational transition. 8. Compliance & Validation • Documentation: Thorough as-built and functional documentation for audits and training. • Regulatory Standards: Compliance with API, OSHA, ISA, and local regulations.

Course 1: The Different Security Plans and Reports (Security Documents) In security management, each situation requires a tailored response. That’s why different plans and reports are developed each with a specific purpose. Here are the essential documents every security professional should know: 1. Site Security Plan This plan outlines all the preventive and protective measures in place to ensure the safety of a site (hotel, building, compound, etc.). It includes: - Access control and entry points - CCTV and surveillance systems - Visitor management - Security personnel deployment and patrols - Sensitive zones and access levels Goal; Prevent intrusion, theft, sabotage or terrorist acts. 2. Evacuation Plan This plan provides clear procedures to safely and quickly evacuate people from the site in case of emergency: fire, bomb threat, earthquake, etc. It covers: - Emergency exits and escape routes - Assembly points - Roles and responsibilities (floor wardens, evacuation guides) - Alarm systems and signage Goal; Protect lives during a dangerous situation. 3. Contingency Plan This plan anticipates exceptional situations that could disrupt operations, outside of immediate emergencies. Examples include: - Extended power outages - Strikes or civil unrest - Epidemics or pandemics - Natural disasters (floods, storms) It provides alternative solutions and adjustment procedures to keep activities running. Goal; Ensure operational continuity in unpredictable events. 4. Crisis Management Plan This plan defines the organization’s strategy to respond to major crises that could affect its reputation, safety, or operations. It includes: - A crisis management team with clear roles - Internal and external communication protocols - Coordination with local authorities - Action plans for different scenarios Goal; Manage the crisis effectively, minimize damage and regain control. Key Security Reports 1. Risk Assessment Report This report identifies potential risks that may impact people, assets or operations. It evaluates the likelihood and impact of each risk and proposes mitigation strategies. It includes: - Hazard identification - Vulnerability analysis - Risk matrix (likelihood vs. impact) - Recommendations Goal; Help decision-makers prioritize risks and allocate resources effectively. 2. Threat Assessment Report This report focuses specifically on intentional threats (criminal, terrorist, insider threats, etc.). It analyzes: - Potential adversaries and their capabilities - Historical data and intelligence - Likely targets and methods of attack - Security gaps or weaknesses Goal; Understand and anticipate hostile threats to enhance proactive protection. https://lnkd.in/eaYwg8Dh #SecurityManagement #Physicalsecurity #RiskAssessment #CrisisManagement #EvacuationPlan #SecurityPlanning #ThreatAssessment #SiteSecurity #SafetyFirst #SecurityProfessionals

Bounce, a Bengaluru-based bike rental startup, once faced a huge challenge that threatened its survival. Every day, nearly 150 to 200 cases of theft were reported, from helmets to batteries and even tires. These losses not only increased costs but also created hurdles for smooth operations. To tackle the issue, Bounce decided to turn to technology. The company introduced Bluetooth-enabled helmets, IoT-based tracking systems, and stricter accountability measures for users. These solutions made it easier to monitor vehicles and accessories in real time while discouraging misuse. The results were remarkable. The number of thefts dropped from almost 200 a day to just 1 or 2. This transformation not only saved the startup from heavy financial losses but also became a strong example of how innovation and technology can solve real-world urban problems.

Imagine this--you order a product from an e-commerce platform, receive it, and then initiate a return claiming "damaged item" or "wrong product received." 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐚 ₹1.1 𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐦? That is exactly what happened when Myntra became a victim of one of the most well-orchestrated refund frauds in Indian e-commerce history. A network of fraudsters placed over 5,000 fake orders. In Bengaluru alone, approximately 5,529 fraudulent orders were found. The loophole they exploited? Myntra’s refund policy. This is what they did: 1️⃣ Placed an order for premium products. 2️⃣ Filed a refund claim--citing “wrong product received” or “damaged item.” 3️⃣ Received a refund without returning the original item. 4️⃣ Repeated the process at scale with multiple fake accounts. Since refunds were processed before verification, Myntra was bleeding losses before realising something was off. ₹1.1 crore was gone before the fraud was caught. This has woken up the whole industry to have better processes in place by creating: ✅ Stricter Refund Verification – Refunds for high-value orders now require mandatory product verification before processing. ✅ Quicker and 100% reliable Reconciliation - That is what we are building at FAB MAVEN with our AutoReco tool. ✅ AI-Driven Fraud Detection – Patterns like excessive returns from a single account are now being auto-flagged for review. ✅ Stronger Buyer History Checks – Platforms now track return abuse patterns, leading to account bans for serial offenders. ✅ Logistics Enhancements – Some platforms have introduced tamper-proof return packaging and doorstep quality checks before refunds are approved. Have you seen return policies change on platforms you shop from? #ecommerce #shopping #myntra #amazon #refunds #reconciliation #fpa #cfo

Is your product at risk of Product Market Fit Collapse? Some companies have been blindsided by customers running to 10x better AI products (Stack Overflow), other companies have moved fast to embrace AI (Adobe), and yet others keeping calm and carrying on (Airbnb). What puts some companies at risk? The "AI Disruption Risk Assessment", created with Brian Balfour and Reforge, is a framework to help you understand and respond to AI disruption risks. The framework evaluates 18 factors across four key areas: Use Case - How will AI impact how users engage with your product? Growth Model - How will AI impact your product’s growth model? Defensibility - How will AI impact your product’s defensibility? Business Model - How will AI impact how your product monetizes? Key insights: 1. AI is diffusing much faster than any previous technology, causing customer expectations to spike nearly instantly. ⏰ 2. Products relying on search traffic and user-generated content face higher risks, while those with direct relationships and human-centered growth loops often find tailwinds. 🌬️ 3. Unique data, emotional engagement, and strong network effects are lasting advantages in the AI era. 🔒 What have you found that is driving disruption and how are smart companies responding? Link to the full post and the assessment tool in the comments below 👇 #AI #Strategy #ProductManagement

This is my quickfire guide on protecting customer support agents if you've seen the recent Coinbase incident (link in comments). 1️⃣ Use strong unphishable MFA (FIDO2), ideally security keys, for all customer support agents. 2️⃣ Use secured devices with binary allowlisting, ideally Chromebooks. Failing that, something like remote browser isolation can prevent many commodity malware issues, but won't stop skilled attackers. 3️⃣ Limit standing access to customer data so that different support teams have access to different customer sets. The fewer customers a support agent has standing access to, the better. 4️⃣ Use explicit customer consent checks wherever possible and prevent access to customer UGC. This is a great way to cut down the amount of access individuals have, without hefty access approvals. 5️⃣ Make access log reviews easy, both for the security team and for managers of customer support, as they often have more context about expected access patterns. Ideally, pair both device logs (EDR, Browser, etc) with detailed customer support access logs. 6️⃣ Ideally, customer support should test customer issues in ephemeral cloud environments, which are separated per customer rather than on their workstations. 7️⃣ Ensure your BPOs and contractors follow the same controls as your staff, if not even stronger controls. Even if you do all this, insider threat is always a concern. The reality is you can do everything right, then someone can just pay insiders for the info, like in the Coinbase incident. Use the above for defense in depth to limit their standing access, and don't skimp on the detection and response controls. What I've listed isn't inclusive by any means. I've got a blog post about securing BPOs in the comments, but I plan to do a full one on customer support protection in the next few months.  

𝗜𝗖𝗦 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹: 𝗞𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝘆𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗢𝘂𝘁 𝟯:𝟬𝟬 𝗮.𝗺. 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁: An operator sees the cursor moving—on its own. In 2021, hackers actually took control of a Florida water plant, nearly poisoning the water. Why? Shared passwords and open remote access. Access control in Industrial Control Systems (ICS) isn’t just IT hygiene—it’s a frontline defense. Unlike IT, ICS must balance security vs. uptime, making access control complex. 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗖𝗦 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 ❌ Default & Shared Credentials – Many OT devices still use factory-set or hardcoded passwords. ❌ Overprivileged Accounts – Admins using the same account for both daily tasks & critical operations. ❌ Uncontrolled Remote Access – Unrestricted RDP, TeamViewer, or VPN access directly into OT. ❌ Lack of Continuous Audits – Old user accounts lingering long after employees leave. 𝗣𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 (Aligned with IEC 62443) ✏️ Kill Default Credentials – Change all default passwords before deployment. Use compensating controls if you can’t. ✏️ Unique, Least-Privilege Accounts – No shared logins. Admins should have separate work and privileged accounts. ✏️ Secure Remote Access – Jump servers, MFA, and firewalls between IT & OT. No direct access to controllers. ✏️ Regular Audits & Offboarding – Disable accounts immediately when employees or contractors leave. 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙇𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙤𝙣: The Florida water plant breach could have been prevented with MFA, segmented access, and unique passwords. Simple steps can block attackers from turning small mistakes into disasters. ICS security is about access—who gets in, what they can do, and when they’re removed. Every login should tell a secure story. #ICS #CyberSecurity #IEC62443 #AccessControl #OTSecurity