Contingency Planning Tools

"Should we hire or should we cut?" is a question I'm hearing often from small business owners right now, which is fair given the mixed economic signals. Some clients are seeing their best quarters ever. Others are watching pipelines thin out. Everyone seems to be asking, "How do we plan for what we can't predict?" This is where scenario planning becomes your survival tool; not just hoping for the best, but modeling the reality of different futures. Here's what we walk our clients through: 🌳 The Growth Scenario: For example, if revenue is expected to be up, we’re looking at potential team expansion and higher overhead. Looking at what that does for cash flow given the changes to expected expense changes. 🌱 The Steady Scenario: Where flat growth is expected and we plan to maintain current team, we’ll want to optimize margins and prepare for inevitable per team member increases. There will likely be some percentage increase YOY but we expect the core costs to stay the same. 🍃 The Contraction Scenario: On the other hand, if revenue is expected to go down, we want to look at strategic cuts that allow the team to run efficiently while preserving cash. For our clients, this is usually a mix of team, professional services, and travel. We also want to ensure that the resources kept are used efficiently. Each scenario gets its own financial mode where we map out cash flow, runway, and break-even points for 3, 6, and 12 months ahead. The command center for this? Fathom. We've been using Fathom since the beginning of Little Fish Accounting and it lets us build the scenarios in real-time with clients, showing exactly how each decision ripples through their financials. No more spreadsheet gymnastics or gut-feeling guesses. Ultimately, the founders who survive uncertainty aren't the ones with crystal balls—they're the ones with clear models and decisive action plans. And we're glad to be the builders 🧱

Great plans fail from ignored risks. Map them before they grow. Risks don’t wait. So why do we? Most teams only act after the damage is done. Here’s a tool that flips the script: The Risk Matrix → Spot risks fast. → Act on the right ones. → Save time, stress, and budget. Let me break it down for you: 1. What’s the Risk Matrix? A 3x3 grid that ranks your risks. Based on how bad it is + how likely it is. 2. Why it works: → Shows what needs your eyes now. → Helps teams stay sharp. → Cuts the noise, shows the storm. 3. How to build one: → Draw 3 rows and 3 columns. → Use “Likely” on one side. → Use “Impact” on the other. → Add red/yellow/green to mark zones. 4. What you do with it: → Spot your risks. → Rank each one. → Place it on the grid. 5. Where it helps: → Projects → Supply chain → Safety checks → Crisis prep 6. Don’t mess it up by: → Guessing scores → Ignoring small stuff → Keeping the team out 7. Pro tips: → Use real data → Stay fair with scoring → Check it often, not once Sample risks: → Complaints? Medium. → System crash? High. → Shipping late? Low. *** 🔖 Save this post for later. ♻️ Share to help others manage risks. ➕ Follow Sergio D’Amico for more on continuous improvement. 📌 P.S. Want to make smarter bets and dodge disasters? Start using a Risk Matrix this week. It’ll change how you lead.

Your planning tools can't answer "What if?" (and it's costing you millions) I've seen this mistake hundreds of times. Companies invest in sophisticated planning tools that tell them what happened yesterday. But when leadership asks "What if?" questions, these tools fall silent. What if demand spikes 30% in Europe? What if your key supplier in Asia goes offline for a month? What if new tariffs hit overnight? Your current tools weren't built for this. They were designed for a predictable world that no longer exists. That's why forward-thinking companies are switching to simulation digital twins. Unlike traditional tools, simulation twins let you test disruptions, policy changes, and demand shifts BEFORE they happen. One manufacturer I worked with identified $14M in annual savings by testing different network configurations against multiple disruption scenarios. They didn't just predict what might happen. They knew exactly how to respond when it did. The difference? They could answer "What if?" with confidence. Can your planning tools do that? Keep Closing. Want to better understand how AI-powered process simulation twin technology can transform your supply chain? Get your guide here: https://lnkd.in/g-XQXCpz