Analyzing Leadership Decisions And Outcomes

The simple practice that has improved my decision making Shane Parrish from Farnam Street introduced me to decision journaling in 2019. What started as a simple concept has become one of my most valuable leadership tools. After years of making big decisions and wondering why some worked out better than others, I started doing something that felt almost too simple: writing them down. Not just the decision itself, but the assumptions behind it. For every major decision such as product launches, key hires and more, I document three things: 1. What decision we're making and why 2. What key assumptions are driving this decision 3. What outcomes we expect and by when Then, six months later, I revisit the journal. Not to judge past decisions, but to understand which assumptions were wrong and why. Where This Gets Really Powerful: Hiring I apply this to every senior hire. During interviews, I document what we think this person will excel at and what outcomes we expect. Six months later, during performance reviews, I compare the interview notes to reality. "We thought Sam would spike on innovation. She scored high in interviews. But looking at her first six months, where are the innovative ideas?" This isn't about being right or wrong—it's about calibrating my assessment skills. I've done this for every promotion and attrition too. When someone leaves, I go back to their original interview notes and ask: What did we think they'd be great at? What actually happened? The Compound Effect After two years of decision journaling, I can see my own blind spots clearly. I tend to underestimate implementation complexity. I overvalue certain interview signals. These insights don't just improve future decisions—they help me know when to seek different perspectives. The practice takes a few minutes per decision and has fundamentally changed how I think about leadership accountability. What systems do you use to improve your decision-making over time?

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 . . . 🔷As a manager and leader, whether you're just starting out or you’ve been in the game for years, you know that the decisions you make every day can have lasting effects. But how often do you stop to reflect on how those decisions are made—especially when they don’t go as planned? 👇Before diving into your next big decision, ask yourself: ❓What past decisions didn’t turn out the way I expected? ❓Am I repeating the same approach, hoping for different results? ❓How can I use past experiences to improve my current decision-making? 💡In our rush for efficiency, we often move quickly, believing that speed will bring results. But true efficiency comes from intentional reflection—slowing down to mine the lessons hidden in past decisions, even when those decisions didn’t work out. 👉Here are some key steps you can take to improve your decision-making by learning from past experiences: 1️⃣ 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺. Before jumping to solutions, make sure you're addressing the right issue. Don’t let assumptions or desired outcomes cloud your understanding of what’s actually at stake. 2️⃣ 𝗜𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻. Stress can cloud judgment and reinforce biases. By understanding what’s triggering your stress, you can prevent it from skewing your decision-making process. 3️⃣ 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘇𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝗱𝗻’𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗼𝘂𝘁. Choose a few decisions that didn’t go as planned. What went wrong? Were there warning signs you ignored? This reflection will help you avoid similar mistakes. 4️⃣ 𝗔𝗰𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗹𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲. Every decision comes with assumptions. Looking back, what assumptions led to poor outcomes? Did you rely on incomplete information, or overlook key factors? 5️⃣ 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. Use what you’ve learned from past mistakes to make adjustments to your current decision. What new approaches can you take to get a better outcome? 6️⃣ 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽 𝗮 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻. After reflecting on your past and current decision, create a strategy that addresses the lessons learned. Ensure your approach incorporates new insights to avoid repeating mistakes. 🪴Mistakes are not failures—they’re opportunities for growth. By taking the time to reflect on past decisions, you gain the insight needed to make more informed and confident choices in the future. 💫Remember, slowing down and reflecting is not a sign of inefficiency, but a strategy for long-term success. Ask yourself: 𝘈𝘮 𝘐 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘤𝘬𝘭𝘺 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘬𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘵, 𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘮 𝘐 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘧𝘶𝘭, 𝘥𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴?

To understand executive performance, boards must look hard at the real signals of performance. Confidence, charisma, polished presentations, and even strong market conditions are fake signals that can mask the real story. At times, the true state of a CEO’s performance does not match perceived performance. A simple three-step process to help board members and executives gauge the actual effectiveness of leadership: 1️⃣ Understand the "real" state of performance. Board members must consider how a company’s outcomes compare to industry standards, competitors, and the specific dynamics of the market at that time. A company (and the CEO) could be performing exceptionally well in a booming market but actually losing share to competitors. 2️⃣ Understand and probe the link between performance and actions. A CEO needs to know which levers to pull under which circumstances and how that will impact the business. Boards must discern whether results are happening because of a CEO’s decisions…or in spite of them. While this is sometimes clear, it often takes inspection and conversation to uncover. This is one of the single biggest areas for better board inquiry on CEO performance. 3️⃣ Assess clarity of thought and adaptability. How clear is a CEO’s thinking surrounding those business levers and their long-term impact? Do they have a clear trajectory and a plan to re-evaluate when needed? A CEO cannot simply revisit a 5-year plan after 5 years - leaders who stay close to the business and its key metrics are better positioned to spot and act on real-time signals. In short, the job of evaluating a leader’s performance is as much about understanding the “why” behind their actions as it is about the “what.” By following these three steps, board members can dig into the link between action and performance - and whether the right adjustments are being made to ensure success in the future.

Nearly 60% of CEOs evaluate their strategic decision capability based on outcomes rather than the quality of their decision-making process (PwC). It’s easy to see why. Outcomes are tangible, measurable, and at the end of the day, they’re the bottom line. Yet, decades of research show that using smart decision processes thoroughly beats congratulating yourself on outcomes. This is because outcomes are influenced by factors outside your decision scope—like market shifts, new regulations, or good old-fashioned luck. You could have a positive result because the market suddenly changed in your favor, or because a competitor stumbled. Or, a great decision could lead to an unfavorable outcome simply because of unexpected variables—like an economic downturn or an unforeseen risk. By the way, some of the most brilliant, value-creating moves I’ve seen came after a bad misstep or unexpected event prompted exec teams with stellar decision practices to re-evaluate and take advantage of the new conditions. (Insert your favorite example from early COVID here!)  When you evaluate your strategic decisions through the lens of the quality of your decision-making process it can reveal key insights: ✨ Clarity of information: Did you gather the right data? Were there gaps in your information? ✨ Diverse perspectives: Did you get a variety of viewpoints? Did you challenge assumptions? ✨ Navigating uncertainty: What risks were identified? Did you fully explore what you were unclear about? ✨ Alignment with values and mission: Did your decisions consistently reinforce the org’s larger vision? Were the decisions aligned with your org’s core values? ✨ Flexibility and agility: Did you stay flexible to new information or changing circumstances? ✨ Room for improvement: What worked well? What changes might be made next time? Focusing on the quality of your decision-making process reveals whether your decisions are based on thorough analysis, aligned with your strategic goals, and designed to be repeatable for long-term success. What could change for your team if you started measuring success by increasing the quality of your decisions instead of waiting for the results?