Strategic Forecasting Techniques

(FMCG Blueprint) Sales forecasting in FMCG is both an art and a science. Let’s break it down using some basic matrices with a relatable example. Imagine we’re working for a brand that sells a spicy instant noodle, “HotBowl Ramen”. 1. Historical Sales Data (Your Crystal Ball) The first step is to look at past sales. For example: Month Sales (Units) January 10,000 February 11,000 March 10,500 April 12,000 Now, let’s assume you notice a 5% growth trend every month. For May, you might forecast: May Sales = April Sales * (1 + Growth Rate) = 12000 * (1 + 0.05) = 12600 Tip: This works well unless your sales suddenly nosedive because people discovered a new health fad: “No-Spice Life!” 2. Seasonality (Your FMCG Calendar) People eat more noodles in winter because “cozy food” vibes. Let’s adjust for seasonality: • Winter months: Add 10% • Summer months: Subtract 15% If your May forecast is 12,600 units but May is peak summer, adjust like this: Adjusted Sales = Base Sales * (1 - 0.15) = 12600*0.85 = 10,710 Reality Check: Your product is spicy. Some brave souls will still eat it even in May, sweating like they’re in a sauna. 3. Market Dynamics (Your Frenemy) Suppose your competitor, “MildBowl Ramen,” launches a huge promotion in May. You estimate a 10% impact on your sales. Final Sales Forecast = Adjusted Sales * (1 - 0.1) = 10710*0.9 = 9,639 4. Promotional Impact (Buy One, Cry One Free?) Now, your marketing team swoops in with a “Buy 1 Get 1 Free” promo. Promotions can boost sales by 20%, so: Promo Adjusted Sale = 9639*1.2 =11,566.8 Realistic Case Summary Step Forecasted Sales Base Sales Forecast 12,600 Seasonality Adjustment 10,710 Competitor Impact 9,639 Promo Impact 11,566 Funny Perspective Imagine your boss: • Before Forecast: “We need 15,000 units this month!” • After Your Analysis: “Hmm… okay, but let’s add another promo to reach 12,000 at least!” Your real hero? The customer who eats your spicy noodles even in May, sweating but happy. Moral: Forecasting is like cooking ramen—balance your ingredients (data) and adjust for taste (market trends)!

The case for active EM 🐅 strategies…it’s those massive country return dispersions! I stumbled across an interesting research piece by Emerging Markets specialist Ashmore ("A new bull market cycle in EM equities") in which Gustavo Medeiros and Ben Underhill lay out the case for active management in EM equities, backed up by an independent study by Wilmington Trust: "Low-cost ETFs make economic sense for efficient markets with a survivorship bias, like the S&P 500. They make less sense for a benchmark composed of 2️⃣4️⃣ countries with more than 1️⃣3️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ constituent companies, with far lighter coverage from sell-side research. These characteristics mean active management has disproportionate importance in EM, whose companies lead the world in a wide range of industries yet sit in transformative economies with often immature institutions. The result is a high return opportunity for stock pickers alongside high market volatility, much of which can be attributed to top-down drivers. ⚠️ The average yearly performance dispersion between the highest and lowest country in the MSCI EM since 1997 was 111%, with a 63% to 264% range. ⚠️ Political dynamics driving policy changes explains much of this dispersion. Countries suffering from top-down governance deterioration tend to underperform. By contrast, countries implementing reforms to improve macro stability and boost economic freedom to the private sector tend to do well. Active managers that understand these dynamics can increase exposure to nations on the rise, while limiting holdings in politically turbulent countries. Several researchers have statistically proven that most EM active strategies outperform, partially due to this large country dispersion. 💡 A recent paper by Wilmington Trust, using data from December 1999 to December 2023, shows that in 7️⃣5️⃣% of 12-month rolling periods more than half the EM active managers beat their benchmark, a much more frequent outperformance than for managers of US small cap and international developed (6️⃣5️⃣%) and US large cap (3️⃣8️⃣%)." (+++Opinions are my own. Not investment advice. Do your own research.+++) #markets #investing #money #wealthmanagement Tap the bell 🔔 to subscribe to my profile & you'll be notified when I post. 💸

Tried this exercise twice in my workshops and worked out really well: - Download the full Future Today Institute 2024 Tech Trends Report (available at https://lnkd.in/dQbAtizE); - Identify six trends that you consider meaningful for your market; - Select and merge two of them and present a convergence trend you believe it's happening and/or impactful and we're not aware of. The report includes 695 trends across 16 key sectors. By converging two of them, you get a number above 400k of possible convergence trends. It proves how #convergence trendspotting is hard and the increasing need for tools that keep track of the driving forces surrounding us.

Tried ‘trends’ as the prospect conversation starters? Here's what the data reveals about trend-driven engagement: 1. First-mover posts on emerging trends get 4x more engagement 2. Trend-focused content generates 2.7x more direct messages 3. Companies leading trend discussions close deals 31% faster 4. Prospects reach out proactively when you're seen as the trend authority 5. Sales cycles shorten by 40% when you're perceived as an industry expert But here's what most miss: The real opportunity isn't in following trends - it's in becoming the trend interpreter for your industry. When you consistently break down complex trends into actionable insights, you become the go-to resource. I've seen this pattern repeat countless times: Companies struggle with content that generates zero engagement while their competitors are drowning in inbound opportunities. The difference? Strategic trend positioning. At PipeBagger, we've developed a framework that turns trend-watching into revenue-generating conversations. We help B2B companies: • Build authority through strategic trend analysis • Create content that attracts b2b decision-makers • Generate high-intent sales conversations within emails and DMs • Convert trend enthusiasm into high-conversion FUNNEL tactics The market is shifting. Those who master trend-driven engagement today will own the conversations tomorrow. Want to see how your current content strategy stacks up against top performers? Let's connect and explore how you can leverage trends to build authority and generate consistent pipeline opportunities. #B2BMarketing #ContentStrategy #ThoughtLeadership

👉 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 & 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 👈 𝗘𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀: 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗕𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 📝 Last week we talked about The Power of Data in Business Development: https://lnkd.in/dwuweJfh 📈 All tech companies are looking for growth and emerging economies can provide such opportunities. 🌍 Expanding into emerging markets like Asia, Africa, or South America is on every tech leader’s radar. The promise of untapped customer bases and rapid growth is hard to ignore - but success isn’t guaranteed. 👉 From my own experience of expanding tech businesses in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Africa, here are 3 key considerations for localizing successfully: 1️⃣ 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗡𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀: Emerging markets aren’t one-size-fits-all. What works in Europe or the US may not resonate elsewhere. Local research is crucial to adapt your product and messaging to real customer pain points. 2️⃣ 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗛𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗹𝗲𝘀: From data privacy laws to taxation, each market comes with its own rules. Building compliance into your strategy early can save costly delays later. 3️⃣ 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀: Success often hinges on hiring local talent who understand the culture, language, and buyer behavior. Partnering with trusted local advisors can accelerate market entry. 💡 The opportunity is significant, but companies that expand without a tailored approach risk losing credibility and resources. 🗨️ Over to you: Have you led or been part of a team expanding into emerging markets? What were your biggest lessons or challenges? Share your experience in the comments - we all learn from this exchange! #EmergingMarkets #GlobalExpansion #BusinessDevelopment #LocalizationStrategy #GrowthStrategy  _______ 𝘏𝘪, 𝘐 𝘢𝘮 𝘐𝘨𝘰𝘳. 𝘔𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘬𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘉𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘱𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 & 𝘋𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭. 𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘦𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭-𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥 - 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘰𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘭𝘦𝘵'𝘴 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳! 𝘌𝘯𝘫𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵? 𝘓𝘪𝘬𝘦 👍, 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 💬, 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘵 ♻️.

The Forecast Loop: Why Your Numbers Never Match Reality 🧪 Ever notice how your forecasts miss the mark? You're not alone. Often times when I'm building forecasts for a fast-growing SaaS company, we'll spend weeks building models, only to watch it become irrelevant and stale after just a few months. The solution? Stop treating forecasting as a one-time project and start seeing it as an ongoing cycle of testing and improvement. ➡️ EXPERIMENT This is where the cycle begins. This requires structured testing, not random assumptions: Take a financial assumption and isolate it Change one pricing strategy at a time Adjust a specific operational factor The key is controlling your variables. When testing a price increase, don't simultaneously change your sales commission structure. Keep it clean! ➡️ MEASURE Now comes measurement. This means thorough tracking, well beyond a quarterly P&L review. I'm talking about tracking BOTH financial AND operational results: Revenue impact? Obviously. Customer acquisition cost changes? Critical. Renewal rates affected? You bet. Most companies fall short here - they watch revenue but miss the operational indicators that explain WHY the numbers changed. ➡️ LEARN Learning is comparing what you thought would happen with what actually happened. Launching a new product line? Trying a new acquisition channel? Landing a new partnership? These all involve assumption that require validation. But don't just note the difference - understand why it happened. Was your conversion rate overstated? Did it take longer to ramp up that partner? ➡️ UPDATE FORECAST Finally, update your forecast based on what you've learned. Most companies get this backward - they tweak forecasts to match historical results without updating the underlying assumptions. Instead: Adjust the actual input variables Refine how your model weighs different factors Document what you've learned so forecasts get smarter each cycle === The forecast loop focuses on continuous improvement rather than immediate perfection. What's the biggest gap you've seen between forecast and reality? How did you learn from it? Comment below 👇

Emerging markets (EM) present a potential investment opportunity, but selectivity may be key. In our latest insights piece, I explore how near-term macro-economic shifts and long-term mega forces could set the stage for a new era of investing in emerging markets.   -Near-Term catalysts: The macro-economic environment could soon favor emerging markets. Anticipated rate cuts in the U.S. could weaken the dollar, potentially boosting EM assets. -Long-Term mega forces: mega forces such as youthful demographics and the rewiring of supply chains may benefit countries with younger working populations, like India and Mexico. -Portfolio Opportunities: We see potential for investors to increase their allocations to EMs in their portfolios, but investors should consider more granular exposures to harness the potential within the space.   Dive deeper into our views on emerging markets and how to approach the space: https://lnkd.in/ej7qBXEz 

When going global, picking the right market is critical. Yet, 85% of exporters get it wrong. Why? They rely on: ❌ Random overseas orders ❌ Gut feelings ❌ Recommendations from friends ❌ Falling in love with a vacation spot (I kid you not!) These shortsighted decisions will bleed your business dry. So, what should you do instead? ✅ Conduct proper market research: Dive deep into the economic, political, and cultural factors of your target market. Talk to people who’ve been there and learn from their experience. ✅ Assess market potential: How big is the market? Is there demand for your product? Study your competitors and figure out how to stand out. ✅ Identify entry barriers: Research the tariffs, regulations, and other obstacles that could hold you back. ✅ Understand your audience: Don’t assume what worked at home will work abroad. Get a clear picture of your new customer’s needs, pain points, and desires. ✅ Build a strategic plan: Create a time-based plan that maps out your marketing, sales, and distribution strategies, customized for the new market. You’ve worked hard to build your business. Don’t throw it away on a rash decision. Need help choosing the right market? Let’s connect and talk about how to make smarter, more strategic decisions for your global growth. #InternationalBusiness #MarketSelection #Expansion #Strategy #GlobalGrowth #MarketResearch

Most businesses react to trends. The smartest ones? They see them before they explode. Here’s how I use Google Trends (to spot hidden demand before competitors do): Step 1: Go to Google Trends (Explore). Step 2: Change Search Type from "Web Search" to "YouTube Search" or "Google Shopping." Step 3: Identify rising queries in video and eCommerce before they peak in web search. Why this works: → Video trends hit YouTube first (before appearing in blog content). → Product demand surges in Google Shopping (before brands optimize for it). A client in fitness equipment spotted a spike for "adjustable dumbbells" on Google Shopping before the 2020 lockdowns. They optimized their product pages 2 months before competitors caught on. Result? - Ranked #1 before demand exploded. - Doubled their eCommerce revenue. - Owned the search before competitors even noticed. 👉 SEO isn’t just about ranking. It’s about predicting. The best brands don’t react to trends. They create them. Want to learn how to spot trends before they go mainstream (and use them to dominate your niche)? Book a call and let’s build your predictive SEO game-plan. And if you found this useful, Don’t forget to follow for more practical SEO + demand-gen strategies. #GoogleTrendsHacks #DemandHacking #MarketingStrategy

Expanding into adjacent markets can fuel growth—but only if done strategically. Many companies fall into the adjacency trap, assuming a new market is a natural fit without assessing the capabilities needed to succeed. The best expansions happen when companies leverage what they already do best. Take Amazon, which extended into bookselling through AbeBooks, aligning with its e-commerce and logistics strengths. On the flip side, airline budget brands like United’s TED failed because they lacked the cost discipline of true low-cost carriers. The key? Growth should reinforce your capabilities system, not stretch it too thin. Before expanding, ask: Does this move build on what we already do exceptionally well? Ps. If you like content like this, please follow me.