Nick Wright’s Picks for Thanksgiving, NFL Week 13

After a slow start to the season I set a simple goal: be above .500 by Thanksgiving. We’ve clawed our way back. Thanks to a 3-1-1 week, the card now sits at 30–29–1. Not pretty, but profitable, and more importantly, I feel like we’re finally on the right side of these games.

This week, presented by our friends at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, I’ve narrowed it down to five plays I really believe in, plus a teaser from Damonza and a couple of specialty props. Here’s how I’m attacking the slate.

Laying the Field Goal with Kansas City at Dallas

• ➡️ Pick: Chiefs -3 at Cowboys (Hard Rock Bet line)

Most shops are hanging Kansas City -3.5, but Hard Rock Bet is dealing a flat -3, and I’m happy to pounce. Yes, on paper this is a tricky spot: The Chiefs are coming off an overtime game. They’re on the road on a short week.

Normally that’s a recipe for disaster. But in this specific case, I’m not nearly as concerned: that overtime game against Indy was bizarre, with the Colts barely having the ball, and it actually ended earlier than Dallas’s game in the late window. The wear-and-tear isn’t your typical OT slugfest.

More importantly, this comes down to matchup. Whatever issues Kansas City’s offense has had, they still shred bad secondaries, and I think Dallas has a bad secondary. When Mahomes faces a back end that can’t disguise or hold up, the Chiefs still move the ball at will.

If you’re giving me the best quarterback in the league, with the superior coaching staff, at a key number of three instead of three and a half with the hook, I’m in.

Chicago Getting a Full Touchdown in Philadelphia

• ➡️ Pick: Bears +7 at Eagles

I simply do not believe the Eagles deserve to be more than six-point favorites against good teams right now.

The offense is herky-jerky, they live in third-and-medium, and the big red flag for me is Lane Johnson’s absence. Over the last few years, when Lane’s out, this offense goes from juggernaut to “hold your breath on every drive.”

On top of that, Ben Johnson (yes, that Ben Johnson, with his “tush push isn’t an explosive play” shot at Philly) knows he has to be ready for this matchup. Chicago is live to win this game outright, and if I think you can win the game, I’ll gladly take a full touchdown.

Fading Arizona Again: Tampa Lays the Three

• ➡️ Pick: Buccaneers -3 vs. Cardinals

Normally, with Baker Mayfield banged up, I would stay away from this kind of number. But Arizona has completely lost my trust.

Last week, Trevor Lawrence practically handed them that game: Four turnovers, including a pick-six.

And still, Arizona couldn’t cover the spread. Those weren’t spectacular defensive plays. That was Trevor handing them opportunities and the Cardinals doing nothing with them.

I expect Baker to play. Bucky Irving returns, Tampa wants to pound the run, and Arizona’s overall sloppiness is too much for me to ignore. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s status remains unclear post-appendix removal, and this offense already struggles with rhythm and consistency.

Tampa at home, short number, clear matchup edges in physicality and discipline.

My (Co-)Favorite Bet: Browns +6 vs. 49ers in the Snow

• ➡️ Pick: Browns +6 vs. 49ers

If it’s not my favorite bet of the week, it’s at least tied for first.

We’re talking about Cleveland’s defense, which is legitimately elite. Brock Purdy, coming off a game where he threw some very shaky interceptions. Snow. At home. Low-possession football.

All of that screams ugly, low-scoring rock fight, exactly the kind of game where six points is a mountain.

In inclement weather, with the Browns’ pass rush and physicality, I don’t need them to outscore the Niners in a shootout. I just need this game to be a slog where every yard is a chore. That’s Cleveland’s ideal environment.

First snow game of the year? Possibly. Elite defense at home? Definitely. I will happily take the six points.

Trusting Seattle to Bury Minnesota’s Third-String QB

• ➡️ Pick: Seahawks -10.5 vs. Vikings

Yes, I know. We just got burned laying points with Seattle last week. We were on the right side the entire way until a late, soul-crushing drive turned a comfortable cover into a bad beat.

We’re going back to the well. Minnesota is down to its third-string quarterback. After McCarthy, we’re now on… Max Brosmer — but the point is the same: I don’t like his chances against Mike Macdonald’s Seattle defense. The question here is simple: Can Seattle get to 21?

If they can, I think that’s enough to cover 10.5 against a Vikings team with a third-string QB, limited offensive ceiling, and a hostile road environment.

Nick’s Official Week 13 Card

1. Chiefs -3 at Cowboys
2. Bears +7 at Eagles
3. Buccaneers -3 vs. Cardinals
4. Browns +6 vs. 49ers
5. Seahawks -10.5 vs. Vikings

Damonza’s Three-Team, Eight-Point Teaser

Damonza stays scorching hot with his “for every week my child is alive, I win a teaser” run, and he’s back with another three-team, eight-point teaser:

1. Dallas teased from +3 to +11 vs. Kansas City
2. Tampa Bay teased from -3 to +5 vs. Arizona
3. Chicago teased from +7 to +15 at Philadelphia

I don’t love teasing through zero with Tampa, and I’m not in love with the Dallas leg either — if you think the Chiefs win, their wins (aside from Indy) tend to be by double digits. But I love the Chicago leg.

I gave this teaser a B-minus—partially on merit, partially for superstition, because every time I grade him poorly, he wins anyway.

Touchdown Genie: Mahomes on the Ground

For the Touchdown Genie, we’re staying in the Chiefs–Cowboys game.

I could go with the obvious: Travis Kelce anytime TD. He’s going to score on Thanksgiving. But at around +115, that’s a little too safe.

Instead, I’m “big game hunting”: Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown at 4-to-1.

The Chiefs have had red zone struggles, and the Cowboys have been vulnerable to quarterback runs. This is the kind of game where Mahomes could easily tuck one in himself.

Fading the Producers (Again): Kareem Hunt & Rashee Rice

Last week, the producers offered Shedeur Sanders over 160.5 passing yards and over 1 passing TD, which would have cashed. I faded them and took the under, and an iffy lateral decision on a swing pass cost us.

This week, their offer is:

• Kareem Hunt over 33.5 rushing yards
• Rashee Rice over 72.5 receiving yards

At +225. Here’s the problem: Isaiah Pacheco is back, and Hunt just had 30+ touches three days ago. I don’t see a big Kareem workload coming right on the heels of that. So I’m flipping the script:

• Kareem Hunt UNDER 33.5 rushing yards
• Rashee Rice OVER 72.5 receiving yards

Still at +225. And yes, once again, I’m going against the producers.

Happy Thanksgiving

We’re sitting just above water at 30–29–1 heading into Week 13, and this card reflects the games I feel strongest about, even after passing on plenty of tempting spots (Detroit, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver, and more).

Enjoy the family, the food, the football, and if you’re riding with me on these, may the bad beats stay far away from your TV.