Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2025-11-24

For 2025-2026, crop year, the outlook incorporates crop production estimates from Statistics Canada’s (STC) September 17, 2025, release of the Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates, which were based on information as of the end of August. Production of all principal field crops is estimated to have increased 2.6% year-over-year (y/y), which would be 8% above the previous five-year average, largely due to improved yields y/y in Western Canada. Harvest in Western Canada is complete. Initial indications from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) on grain harvest and export quality suggest that the quality of the 2025 Western Canadian crop is generally normal to above normal, except for durum. In Eastern Canada, harvest is winding up, with better than anticipated yields despite drier than normal conditions across parts of Ontario, Quebec, and much of the Maritimes. Supplies of principal field crops are up marginally from last year as a lower carry-in moderates the rise in production.

Demand for Canada’s principal field crops remains strong with usage of grains and oilseeds forecast to fall slightly while total demand for pulses and special crops increases by 4%. Total domestic use is projected slightly up on higher consumption of grains and oilseeds while Canadian consumption of pulse and special crops falls marginally. Post-harvest movement of field crops has been smooth with farmer deliveries in Western Canada running marginally ahead of last year based on CGC data. Exports of CGC-monitored crops are down 10% compared to November last year mostly due to lower canola shipments while domestic disappearance is ahead of last year’s pace. Carry-out for all principal field crops is projected to rise by about 30% on increased ending stocks for both grains and oilseeds, and pulses and special crops. Prices for most principal field crops are lower y/y except for flaxseed and mustard, which are up slightly.

The next AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops is scheduled to be released on December 17, 2025. STC is scheduled to publish its final principal field crop production estimates for the year on December 4, 2025, based on a survey in November of approximately 27,200 farmers across Canada.

All Wheat

Durum

For 2025-26, total supply is forecast to remain stable at 7.0 million tonnes (Mt) with production estimated at 6.5 Mt and 0.5 Mt of carry-in. Statistics Canada (STC) puts the average durum yield at 2.54 tonnes per hectare (t/ha) nationally, below the estimated yields for Saskatchewan (SK) at 2.65 t/ha, as reported by the province. SK is the largest producing province of Canadian durum, accounting for 78% of all production over the last five years. Any revision to yield and the durum production estimate will be released by STC on December 4, 2025.

As of November 10, 47% of Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) samples collected from producers through the Canadian Grains Commission’s (CGC) Harvest Sample Program were rated in the top two grades, compared to 72% last year and 77% on average over the last five years. The protein content is above average at 14.7%.

Exports through the licensed elevator system over the first 14 weeks of the crop year are reported at nearly 1.0 Mt, or 3% less than the volume shipped over the same period in 2024-25. On average, CGC shipments are pacing around 10% behind last year’s levels. The 2025-26 export forecast was raised 2% from last month’s report to 5.2 Mt, but remains 11% behind last year’s volume. Strong demand from Turkey and Mexico, who had smaller domestic harvests this year, are boosting export demand for Canadian durum. Domestic use is forecast at 0.7 Mt, on par with 2024-25, while closing stocks were reduced to 1.1 Mt.

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts global production of durum to grow by 2% to 37.2 Mt and the largest in nine years, thanks to large harvests in North America, Europe, and parts of Africa. Total supply is pegged at 44 Mt, 3% above last year’s level, thanks to an 11% increase in opening stocks. Global consumption is also the highest in nine years at 36 Mt, with record food consumption at 34 Mt. Trade, however, is expected to contract 6% from 2024-25 to 8.6 Mt with reduced import demand from North Africa and Europe. World inventories are expected to grow by 17% to 8.0 Mt, with the share in major exporting countries expanding 21% to 3.0 Mt.

The 2025-26 spot price for CWAD 1, 13% protein in SK is forecast at $280/tonne.

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2025-26, total wheat supply is forecast to drop 1% to 33.8 Mt, despite a 2% increase in production, due to low carry-in stocks. According to STC, production is estimated at 30.1 Mt and carry-in stocks at 3.6 Mt, down 22% year-on-year. The national spring wheat yield averages 3.72 t/ha, with the final STC estimates to be released next month following the November survey of grain farmers. Provincial yields for Canadian Western Hard Red Spring wheat (CWRS) are estimated at an average of 3.46 t/ha in SK and 3.75 t/ha in Alberta, while the average spring wheat yield is estimated at 4.0 t/ha in Manitoba, according to provincial government reports. Quality of the CWRS crop is slightly below average, but still excellent, with 92% of all samples rated within the top 2 grades; the average protein content is 13.8%.

Canadian exports of wheat continue to move well through the licensed elevator system, according to the CGC. As a result, exports were raised another 200 thousand tonnes to 22.5 Mt. The already ample global supplies, and additional large harvests expected from Argentina and Australia over the next few months, will maintain intense price competition in global markets. Domestic use was reduced to 7.3 Mt, and closing stocks remain pegged at 4.0 Mt.

The United States Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report resumed its release on November 14. For 2025-26, world wheat supply is projected to grow 11.7 Mt to 1,090.3 Mt thanks to increased production for most major wheat-exporting nations. World wheat production was raised 2% from the September estimate to 828.9 Mt. The consumption, trade, and ending stock forecasts were also all increased compared to the previous estimate.

Consumption is up 4.3 Mt to 818.9 Mt, primarily on higher feed use; global trade is up 2.5 Mt to 217.2 Mt with increased shipments from Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan; and closing stocks were increased 7.4 Mt to 271.4 Mt.

The 2025‑26 forecasted average price for CWRS 1, 13.5% protein in SK is forecast at $265/tonne.

Coarse grains

Barley

For 2025-26, Statistics Canada (STC) estimates 2.5 million hectares (Mha) were seeded to barley in its June seeded acreage report; this represents a decrease of 4% year-over-year (y/y) and 16% below the five-year average. By province, Alberta accounts for 54% of the national area, followed by Saskatchewan (37%) and Manitoba (5%).

STC’s September model-based estimates put 2025 barley production at 8.2 Mt, slightly higher than last year, thanks to an expected improvement in the average yield, despite a smaller sown area and a higher abandonment rate. The Prairie barley harvest is complete; overall, above-average quality and strong yields have been reported.

Supply is projected at 9.5 Mt, little changed y/y, thanks to carry-in stocks at an eight-year high and higher-than-expected production, which offset the decline in imports. However, supply for 2025 remains 4% below the five-year average. Total domestic use is forecast to increase on higher feed demand. Total exports are forecast to be little changed y/y, but well below average. Carry‑out stocks are projected at 1.0 Mt, down y/y, but still well above average.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), total exports of barley for the first fourteen weeks of the current crop year have reached slightly over 1.0 Mt, up sharply compared with those exported in the same period last year and the five-year average. The increase is primarily due to strong exports recorded in September and October, despite a sharp decline in recent weeks.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at $270/tonne (/t), down $26/t from 2024-25, partly due to pressure from expected higher feed grain supplies.

Worldwide, Australia’s barley production for 2025-26 is forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) at 14.6 Mt. This is up 10% y/y and well above the five-year average. The EU’s barley production for 2025-26 is forecast by the European Commission at 56.4 Mt, up sharply y/y and well above the five-year average. US barley production for 2025-26 is estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at slightly over 3.0 Mt, down notably y/y and well below the five-year average.

Corn

For 2025-26, more than 1.5 Mha was seeded to corn, up 4% from the previous season and the five-year average, and only slightly below the all-time high set in 2023-24. By province, Ontario accounts for 58% of the national area, followed by Québec (22%), and Manitoba (16%).

Production is projected at 15.5 Mt, up slightly y/y due to the average yield being lower than the record high in the previous season, despite a larger seeded area. However, the national average yield in 2025 is forecast to remain well above the five-year average, supported by strong yields expected for Ontario.

Supply is projected to decrease slightly y/y, at 19.0 Mt, as a sharp decline in carry-in stocks is expected to more than offset an increase in imports and production . Total domestic use is predicted to be lower marginally y/y on a decline in feed use. Exports have been slow in the last several months and are expected to decline significantly for the entire crop year, mainly due to the expected strong global corn production. Carry‑out stocks are projected at 1.9 Mt, up sharply y/y.

According to the CGC, weekly exports of corn have been almost nil over the past several months, with the cumulative exports down sharply compared with those exported in the same period last year.

The 2025-26 Chatham average corn price is projected at $220/t, down $5/t from 2024-25, mainly due to pressure from expected lower US corn prices.

Worldwide, USDA data shows an abundant global corn supply expected for 2025-26. For the US, its corn supply for 2025-26 is estimated to increase by 10% y/y to a new peak of 465 Mt, supported by record high production. With total demand increasing at a slower rate than supply, US corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are expected to increase sharply from 2024-25 and the five-year average to 55 Mt. The average price is projected to decline by US$10/t y/y to US$157/t, the lowest since 2020.

Oats

For 2025-26, about 1.2 Mha was seeded to oats, up 3% y/y but 11% below the five-year average. By province, Saskatchewan sowed 43% of the Canadian oat crop, followed by Alberta (28%), Manitoba (19%), with the remaining 11% seeded in the other provinces.

Production is projected at 3.4 Mt, up slightly y/y, mainly due to the expected improvement in the average yield, despite a notable increase in the abandonment rate leading to a y/y decline in harvested area. The Prairie oat harvest is complete; overall, good quality and decent yields have been reported.

Supply is projected at 3.9 Mt, down 4% y/y primarily due to lower carry-in stocks; it is also sharply below the five-year average. Total demand is forecast to decline y/y, primarily reflecting lower exports. Carry‑out stocks are forecast at 0.5 Mt, little changed y/y but well below the five-year average.

The 2025-26 CBOT oat price is projected at $305/t, down $40/t y/y and the lowest in five years.

For the EU, oat production for 2025-26 is estimated by the European Commission at 9.0 Mt, up sharply y/y and well above the five-year average.

US oat production for 2025-26 is estimated by the USDA at more than 1.0 Mt, up notably y/y and sharply above the five-year average.

Rye

For 2025-26, Canadian farmers seeded 286 thousand hectares (Kha) of rye, with fall rye at 282 Kha and the remaining being spring rye. The estimated total area is up 56% y/y and 39% above the five-year average, also the highest since 1990. Western Canada makes up over 60% of the national area, with the rest grown in the East.

Production is projected at 542 thousand tonnes (Kt), up sharply y/y and from the five-year average, also the highest since 1990, as an expansion in area seeded offsets a decline in the average yield. This, along with large carry-in stocks, will push supply to nearly 690 Kt, the highest in over three decades. As a result, domestic industrial and feed use, along with exports, are predicted to increase sharply, with carry-out stocks rising to 190 Kt, the highest in over three decades.

The 2025-26 Prairie average rye price is projected at $155/t, down $10/t from 2024-25 and the lowest in fifteen years, mainly due to pressure from abundant supplies.

US rye production for 2025-26 is estimated by the USDA at 316 Kt, down sharply y/y but still well above the five-year average.

Oilseeds

Canola

For 2025-26, farmers seeded 8.7 million hectares (Mha) to canola, with the largest area sown in Saskatchewan, who accounted for 56% of the national area, followed by Alberta (29%) and Manitoba (14%). Statistics Canada (STC) estimates that 8.67 Mha was harvested, resulting in a production estimate of 20 million tonnes (Mt). This is a modest 4% increase from last year and would be the third largest crop on record, just below the back-to-back record large crops achieved in 2017-18 (21.5 Mt) and 2018-19 (20.7 Mt). Despite higher output, total supply is forecast 4% lower year-over-year (y/y) at 21.7 Mt on sharply lower beginning stocks for the year.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission’s harvest sample program as of November 14, 2025, 96% of the 1,049 submitted samples were rated No.1 with an average oil content of 43.6%, higher than last year by 3%. The protein content of the canola rated No.1 averaged 21.4%, lower than last year by 7%, while the chlorophyll content averaged 8.7 milligrams per kilogram. Glucosinolates, a measure of feed quality, averaged 11.1 micromoles per gram (μmol/g), an improvement from last year’s average of 13 μmol/g.

For the crop year to the end of September, STC reports 1.9 Mt of canola seed was crushed, 5% more than over the same period last year. As a result, 0.79 Mt of canola oil (+5% y/y) and 1.1 Mt of canola meal (+6% y/y) were produced, indicating an oil content of 42.3%.

Given the expansion in domestic processing in recent years, demand for Canadian canola is now largely domestically driven. Therefore, the crush estimate remains forecast at a record high of 11.8 Mt, up modestly from last year’s 11.4 Mt and notably higher than the five-year average of 10.3 Mt. Given strong domestic use, combined with the assumption that China’s preliminary anti-dumping duty remains in place, exports for the year are forecast to fall sharply to 7.0 Mt, marking a 12% lower volume versus the average. Carry-out is projected to rise to 2.5 Mt, well above last year and the five-year average.

The simple average price, No.1 Track Vancouver, is forecast at $670/t, down slightly from last year.

Factors to observe are: (i) crop quality, (ii) farmer delivery pace, (iii) crush and export pace, (iv) US soybean and soy-product prices, and (v) progress towards resolution of China’s anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola.

Flaxseed

For 2025-26, area seeded to flaxseed expanded to 250.8 thousandhectares (Kha), up 23% from last year. Saskatchewan, accounting for 87% of the total national area, increased flaxseed area by 29% y/y. STC estimates that 241.5 kha was harvested, resulting in a production estimate of 365.4 thousandtonnes (Kt). This is a sharp rise from last year and the highest output in three years. Subsequently, total supply has risen 18% from last year to 509.5 Kt.

Total domestic use is forecast at 90 Kt, up from last year’s 71.1 Kt. Exports are stable with last year’s volume at 225 Kt. Carry-out is expected to rise notably to 195 Kt.

The simple average price for flaxseed, No.1 in-store Saskatoon cash, is forecast at $600/t, down $30/t from last year and well below the five-year average of $749/t.

Soybeans

For 2025-26, the area seeded to soybeans rose slightly to 2.34 Mha. Lower soybean area seeded in Ontario (-7% y/y) was offset by Manitoba (+16% y/y), Quebec (+4% y/y), and Saskatchewan (+42% y/y). STC estimates a harvested area of 2.32 Mha, resulting in a production estimate of 7.1 Mt. This is down 6% from last year, but still a solid crop historically (6% higher than the five-year average of 6.7 Mt). With lower carry-in for the year coupled with lower output, total supply declines 4% y/y to 8.1 Mt.

Total domestic use is forecast 9% lower than last year at 2.2 Mt on lower feed, waste, and dockage. Domestic crush is projected at 1.7 Mt, up slightly from last year’s 1.68 Mt. Exports are forecast at 5.35 Mt, slightly lower than last year but would be the third highest on record, if realized. This year’s projection follows the record soybean exports achieved in 2018-19 (5.6 Mt), and last year’s 5.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 500 Kt, on par with last year and 24% higher than average.

The Canadian simple average price for soybeans, track Chatham, is projected at $520/t, $33/t higher than last year but below the five-year average of $608/t.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released their November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, updating their projections from September. Global soybean production for 2025-26 is projected lower from September to 421.8 Mt, down from last year’s 427.1 Mt, with US output adjusted lower. Global crush has also been lowered slightly to 365 Mt, largely on reduced domestic crush for India and Argentina. Despite adjusting crush lower, the global projection for domestic crush is up 2% year-on-year. Global soybean exports are projected at 188 Mt, rising 2% from last year’s 185 Mt. Stocks to end the year are projected lower at 122 Mt on decreased stocks for Argentina, Brazil, US, EU, Ukraine, and India. The US average soybean price for 2025-26 was raised 50 cents to US$10.50/bushel (US$386/t).

Pulses and special crops

Dry peas

For 2025-26, production is estimated to rise by 19% to 3.56 million tonnes (Mt). This is largely due to higher yields, especially in Saskatchewan, where 47% of the peas were grown. Yellow pea production is forecast to be higher than last year at nearly 2.78 Mt, and green pea production is expected to rise to 0.53 Mt. Production of the other remaining dry pea types is also expected to be higher at 250 thousand tonnes (Kt). Supply is forecast to be 22% above last year at 4.1 Mt as larger carry‑in stocks combine with higher production. Exports are forecast to remain unchanged at 2.2 Mt. From August to September 2025, Bangladesh and India were Canada’s top two markets. With the larger supply, carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise sharply to record levels. The average price is expected to decrease by over 30% from 2024‑25 to $280/tonne (/t) due to weaker spot prices for all types.

During October, the on‑farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose by $15/t while the price of green pea types was unchanged. Current indications of crop quality suggest a similar percentage of Canadian dry peas will grade No.1 and No.2 when compared to last year. This and the higher Canadian output will result in a larger supply of No.1 and No.2 dry peas for this crop year. For the crop year to‑date, there has been a $130/t premium for green dry peas to yellow dry peas, versus a green pea premium of $208/t to yellow peas in 2024‑25.

Area seeded to dry peas in the US for 2025‑26 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to rise by 21% from last year to 1.18 million acres (0.48 million hectares (Mha)). This is largely due to higher seeded area in North Dakota. US dry pea yields are estimated to be above average and dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise from last year by 23% to 0.93 Mt. The main export markets for US dry peas are Canada, the Philippines, and China.

Lentils

For 2025-26, production is estimated to rise by 0.5 Mt (+22%) to nearly 3.0 Mt, mostly due to higher yields in Western Canada. Production of red lentils fell from last year to about 1.6 Mt, while large green lentil production doubled to 0.9 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types rose to 0.56 Mt. Supply is expected to rise by 32% to 3.6 Mt with higher carry‑in stocks and a rise in output.

Exports are expected to increase to 2.1 Mt. To‑date, India, the EU, and the US are the top export markets. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise sharply to a record 1.15 Mt. The average price is forecast to fall by 33% to $530/t, with an average grade distribution.

During the month of October, the on‑farm price in Saskatchewan for large green lentils rose by $75/t and red lentil prices decreased by $5/t. This was largely due to strong export demand for green lentils. Compared to last year, an increase in the supply of No.1 or No.2 grade Canadian lentils is expected for 2025‑26. To‑date, large green lentil prices have maintained a premium of $100/t over red lentil prices, compared to a $465/t premium in 2024‑25.

For 2025‑26, US area seeded to lentils is forecast by the USDA to rise by 15% from 2024‑25, largely due to higher area seeded in Montana. With higher yields and lower abandonment, 2025‑26 US lentil production is therefore forecast by the USDA at 0.5 Mt, up 23% from the production in 2024‑25. The main US export markets for lentils to‑date are the European Union (EU), Canada, and Mexico.

Dry Beans

For 2025-26, production is estimated to have decreased by 17% to 352 thousand tonnes (Kt). This includes 66 Kt of white pea bean types and 286 Kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario and Manitoba fell as a relatively unchanged seeded area for both provinces was offset by lower yields. In Alberta, colored dry bean production also decreased due to lower area and yields. Supply is forecast to fall by only 10% due to larger carry‑in stocks.

Exports are forecast to be lower than last year. Based on data for August and September, the EU and the US are the top two markets. Carry‑out stocks are expected to decrease.

The Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall to $850/t due to the higher North American supply. Large US carry-in stocks is the main reason for the rise in North American supply.

Area seeded to dry beans in the US is estimated by the USDA to decrease by 9% to 1.39 million acres (0.56 Mha), mostly due to smaller area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at just over 1.3 Mt, down 4% from 2024‑25. The largest decreases are expected for black and pinto beans. The main US export markets continue to be the EU and Mexico.

Chickpeas

For 2025-26, production is estimated at 331 Kt, 15% higher than last year’s output due to higher seeded area and yields. The production of both kabuli and desi types is estimated to be higher than the previous year. Total supply is forecast to increase by 21% due to higher carry‑in stocks. Exports are forecast at 200 Kt with the US and the EU as the top markets. Carry‑out stocks are expected to rise sharply, largely due to increased supply. The average price is forecast to be lower than the previous year, at $600/t, due to expectations for increased world production, with below-average Canadian crop quality.

The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at 0.54 million acres (0.22 Mha), 8% higher than in 2024‑25. With above-average yields, 2025‑26 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 0.234 Mt, up 32% from 2024‑25.

Mustard Seed

For 2025-26, production is estimated to have fallen by 51 Kt to 141 Kt, due to lower area, partly offset by higher yields. Production of yellow, brown, and oriental types of mustard seed decreased. Total supply is forecast to rise marginally to 293 Kt. Exports are expected to be higher at 95 Kt and, as of August and September, the US and the EU are the top two markets. Carry‑out stocks are forecast to rise marginally in Canada and the US, but the average price is forecast to rise from 2024‑25 to $880/t.

Canary Seed

For 2025‑26, production is estimated to be unchanged at 185 Kt as higher seeded area was offset by lower yields. Exports are expected to be higher than the previous year with larger available supply on higher carry-in stocks. Based on data for August and September, Mexico and the EU are the top two export markets, followed by the US. Carry‑out stocks are expected to rise. The average price is forecast to be 34% lower than last year at $450/t.

Sunflower Seed

For 2025-26, production is estimated to have risen to 61 Kt on higher harvested area and yields. When compared to 2024‑25, supply is expected to decrease to 237 Kt, as lower carry‑in stocks offset higher production. Exports are forecast to be lower than the previous year, and carry‑out stocks are forecast to decrease. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to be $700/t, 3% lower than last year, mostly due to weaker oilseed type prices than in 2024‑25.

US sunflower seed production for 2025‑26 is forecast by AAFC at 0.78 Mt, up 50% from 2024‑25. This is largely due to higher production in North and South Dakota. Production of oil-type varieties is estimated to have risen to 0.69 Mt, and the production of confectionery-type varieties is estimated to have been similar at 0.09 Mt. However, total US supply is expected to increase by only 9% to 1.0 Mt. Domestic use is expected to rise. US sunflower seed carry‑out stocks are expected to rise and pressure North American sunflower seed prices.

The world supply of sunflower seed for 2025‑26 is estimated by the USDA at 59.8 Mt. This is 3% higher than last year, due to increased production in Russia and the EU. World domestic use is expected to rise to 54.1 Mt, and world exports are forecast to fall to 2.6 Mt. World carry‑out stocks are expected to be marginally higher than the previous year at 3.1 Mt.

Historical data

Historical principal field crops data are available in spreadsheet format and can be obtained by emailing aafc.bulletin.aac@agr.gc.ca. Please specify crops, Crop years, and preferred file format in your request.