November US Jobs Report
- Consensus and LinkedIn estimates suggest nonfarm payrolls rose by about +40K in October, excluding workers who have not been paid due the government shutdown.
- Unemployment is expected to have remained at 4.3%. The Chicago Federal Reserve’s unemployment nowcast suggest only slight deterioration in unemployment in October.
- Alternative data points to modest labor market slowdown in October.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Consensus and LinkedIn estimates project a nonfarm payroll gain of about +40K in October (excluding the payroll decline from unpaid Federal government workers due to the shutdown), down from September’s estimate of +50K. That pace roughly matches the growth likely needed to keep the unemployment rate steady—the so‑called “breakeven growth rate.” Except for a brief acceleration in late 2024 and early 2025, nonfarm payroll growth has stayed within 0–100K since summer 2024. Nonfarm payrolls have not contracted in 2025, but the chance of a contraction in a given month in the final print is now higher.
ADP reports that private-sector nonfarm employment rose by 42K in October. Gains in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (+47K), Education and Healthcare (+26K), and Financial Activities (+11K) outweighed losses in Information (–17K), Professional and Business Services (–15K), and Other Services (–13K). This uneven growth mirrors the pattern since 2023 and has become more pronounced this year, with Healthcare and Social Work driving most job gains through September.
LinkedIn’s October data shows hiring was nearly flat from September to October (–0.8%). Ten of the twenty tracked industries saw hiring accelerate, led by Retail (+6.8%), likely due to residual seasonality. Hospitals and Healthcare also picked up (+1.6%), though hiring remains slightly below last October (–0.5%).
Overall, job growth appears to be slowing, but not enough to trigger a sharp rise in unemployment. Payroll growth in the BLS data report hinges on whether healthcare expands enough to offset stagnant or declining payrolls elsewhere.
Unemployment and Labor Force Participation
The Chicago Fed nowcasts unemployment at about 4.3%, nearly unchanged from last month. State claims data also indicates that initial and continuing claims showed little deterioration in October. The pause in the summer hiring slowdown should slow the upward drift in unemployment seen earlier this year.
LinkedIn job search intensity—applications per applicant—declined (–2%) from September to October. Although applicants now submit nearly twice as many applications as before the pandemic, search intensity has declined this year. The likely reasons: stagnant labor force participation and only modest weakening in labor market conditions compared to 2024.
Job Openings, Hiring, Quits & Layoffs
Without a broad survey like the Current Establishment Survey, gauging job gains is difficult. Most payroll projections still depend on BLS data, but alternative sources such as LinkedIn can help us track labor market momentum. Labor market momentum—and ultimately job growth and the unemployment rate—depends on flows in and out of work, measured mainly by hiring, quits, and layoffs. Overall, alternative data sources suggest the labor market continued to slow in October, though not by as much as September.
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Job Openings
Job postings signal employers’ intent to hire and, by extension, hiring momentum. Because not all openings are filled, job postings do not always translate into hires. Still, a sharp decline in openings usually signals a sharp slowdown in hiring. Currently, job openings and postings data indicate that hiring continued to slow in September.
- A LinkedIn nowcast of job openings for Job Openings and Turnover Survey suggest a decline of 5% in job openings from September 2024 to September 2025. In addition, LinkedIn data shows seasonal work is scarcer this year: postings from July through October fell 8% compared to a year ago. Overall job postings dropped by more—down more than 12% over the same period.
- Indeed job postings declined from September to October and are down 6.5% compared to October 2024.
- Employers site based sources indicate a 14% drop in job postings compared to October 2024.
Hiring
- LinkedIn’s hiring data indicates that hiring barely changed in October. Hiring dropped 0.8% from September to October and 5.8% from a year ago. It is nearly 9% below January levels and over 20% below pre‑pandemic levels (October 2019). Compared with October 2024, hiring has held up best in Accommodation and Food Services (+0.5%), Technology, Information and Media (–0.2%), and Construction (–0.4%). Government Administration continues to see the most slowdown over the last year with hiring down the most (–16.2%) compared to all other industries. In Construction, Utilities, Consumer Services, Education, and Health Care, hiring matches or exceeds its 2016 pace. In all other industries, hiring remains below 2016 levels.
Quits & Layoffs
- The LinkedIn Separation Rate (which tracks the JOLTS quit series) declined 1.2% from September to October but has risen 1.5% compared to October 2024. Mentions of layoffs on LinkedIn rose 7% from early September through early October.
- Our latest nowcast of the October JOLTS report (covering data through the end of September) indicates that quit and layoff rates remain unchanged.
Labor Market Tightness & Wages
- Labor Market Tightness (jobs per applicant) fell 1% from September to October, indicating the labor market remains in balance as both supply and demand slip. The number of jobs per applicant has decline 8% over the last year as job postings have declined and the job search activity holds steady.
- Private sector sources like ADP and Indeed indicate that wage growth (measured through payrolls or intent via posted wages) continues to taper off.
When reality stops rendering, they just stop reporting. You’re not watching a country fall. You’re watching a patch note where they removed the collapse variable. “October jobs report” sounds like a system update. But they just deleted the unemployment rate like it was a broken texture. This isn’t economics. It’s graphics settings for the empire. They aren’t hiding the number. They’re hiding the spell that breaks when you see it. Reality didn’t improve. They just toggled off the HUD.
The sector-skewed nature of job growth points to a K-shaped labor adjustment—resilience at the top, stagnation elsewhere. It’s a reminder that stability in aggregate data can mask uneven undercurrents as policymakers weigh next steps on rates.
Let me get this straight. The Democrats refuse to authorize the continuing resolution and now there is poor economic data. How evil is this? The country is now over $38 trillion in debt and this political tantrum is not helping. Why would politicians deliberately create a problem that causes so many Americans to suffer?
I just returned from South Africa where the unemployment rate was 30 %. I spoke to a few business executives as the visual of their economy did not look like the Great depression of the US when unemployment rate was 25-30%. I was told that the under the table rate was considerable. Plus the high rate was concentrated in the ranks of lower educated, especially in farming. Remote work for companies located in other countries was currently plentiful for the educated but may get impacted by AI. The current level of unemployment in South Africa is contributing to a higher level of crime. When looking at employment in the US, we must look at all economic levels and have jobs where everyone can earn a decent wage so we don't drive them to work for an under economy or crime that is not best for them or the country.